When Suffolk Polling said they would stop polling Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, I thought they were jumping the gun. It seems they were onto something. In the polls released, Romney seems to have those 3 states on lock. The Obama campaign is now pulling back from those 3 states to defend Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. This is a sign that Romney has solidified traditional Republican states.
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn’t give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes. There is a scenario where Romney could lose Ohio and New Hampshire but win Iowa and Nevada and one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (the state allocates electoral votes by district vote) and capture the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes.
Living in Florida I can testify that I am not seeing many Obama ads anymore. Up until 3 weeks ago, it was a non stop barrage of Obama ads. Now I barely see them and its mostly Romney ads. Speaking to some of my Republican party contacts, they have told me that the Obama campaign has cut back on Florida. The Obama team is sending Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel to campaign for Obama. This is another sign of the low priority Florida has.
It’s coming down to Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. Even though polls show Pennsylvania close, the Romney campaign has decided not to contest it. Instead they are focusing on the 5 states I mentioned previously. I feel this is a mistake since Romney has the resources to put PA. in play. Either way, it’s Obama who is now on the defensive and resorting to demagogue language.
